Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 65.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
48.9% (280)
-1.4%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
50.0% (6)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
47.2% (36)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
50.2% (400)
48.4% (190)
Away
44.7% (365)
49.2% (132)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
47.5%
41.7%
P2
48.6%
56.6%
P3
46.7%
48.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |