Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 81.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 64.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
McDavid
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.4% (867)
+2.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
56.0% (25)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
40.7% (216)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
50.7% (513)
46.5% (480)
Away
53.2% (498)
48.9% (628)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
52.3%
48.7%
P2
51.6%
45.6%
P3
51.7%
49.1%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |