Connor McDavid vs Nick Bjugstad
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 61.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
McDavid
Bjugstad
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
7
McDavid
Bjugstad
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
5
McDavid
Bjugstad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.6% (6,634)
-0.9%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
55.2% (829)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
44.3% (614)
-0.9%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
46.5%
49.0%
P2
48.7%
49.1%
P3
48.3%
48.4%
OT
40.9%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |