Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 77.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 59.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Bjugstad
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
McDavid
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
50.7% (906)
+0.9%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
48.1% (108)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.4% (239)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
51.8% (415)
49.8% (643)
Away
50.4% (450)
48.7% (610)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
47.5%
49.4%
P2
51.6%
50.5%
P3
55.5%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |