Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.4%). Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 50.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 57.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.5%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McDavid
Bjugstad
Last 9: McDavid 4-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
McDavid
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
3
McDavid
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
46.7% (398)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
51.6% (31)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
62.5% (8)
-40.3%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
47.3% (387)
47.3% (220)
Away
48.1% (389)
47.5% (217)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
47.6%
46.1%
P2
50.0%
46.3%
P3
45.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |