Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Foligno 48.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.4%
Defensive zone
Foligno 65.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
McDavid
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
McDavid
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.7% (495)
-1.0%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
56.9% (65)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.8% (144)
-21.6%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
McDavid
Foligno
Home
47.3% (387)
49.6% (359)
Away
48.1% (389)
47.2% (345)
By Period
McDavid
Foligno
P1
47.6%
46.7%
P2
50.0%
52.7%
P3
45.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
46.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |