Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.6%). Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Foligno 48.6% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
McDavid
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McDavid
Foligno
Last 8: McDavid 4-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
3
McDavid
Foligno
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.3% (2,810)
-0.6%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
52.3% (730)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
44.0% (455)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
McDavid
Foligno
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
McDavid
Foligno
P1
46.5%
47.6%
P2
48.7%
50.4%
P3
48.3%
48.3%
OT
40.9%
29.7%
Final 5 min
50.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 00:33 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 08:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |