Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Schmaltz 45.0% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 50.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 86.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
37.7% (53)
+13.8%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
40.9% (44)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
66.7% (3)
-15.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
50.7% (513)
34.7% (49)
Away
53.2% (498)
45.1% (51)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
52.3%
25.9%
P2
51.6%
46.2%
P3
51.7%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
56.5%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |