Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 58.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 72.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
45.9% (665)
+1.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
46.8% (111)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (24)
-3.5%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
50.2% (400)
44.7% (409)
Away
44.7% (365)
47.6% (391)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
40.3%
P2
48.6%
47.6%
P3
46.7%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |