Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 64.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 52.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.1% (268)
-0.4%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
50.5% (91)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
58.8% (17)
-36.6%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +36.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
47.3% (387)
49.0% (206)
Away
48.1% (389)
49.4% (170)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
47.6%
53.6%
P2
50.0%
46.2%
P3
45.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |