Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 55.0%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 50.8%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 53.9%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
38.5% (309)
+13.1%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
53.2% (79)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
25.0% (12)
+11.4%
On even strength, McDavid has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
51.8% (415)
38.0% (184)
Away
50.4% (450)
43.5% (216)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
40.3%
P2
51.6%
39.9%
P3
55.5%
40.7%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |