Scouting Report
Nico Hischier holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hischier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hischier 55.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hischier 56.7%
Defensive zone
Hischier 74.9%
Neutral zone
Hischier 60.3%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
McDavid
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
McDavid
Hischier
Last 9: McDavid 5-4 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
0
1
McDavid
Hischier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
1
2
McDavid
Hischier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Hischier
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
55.8% (1,228)
-8.1%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
62.1% (282)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
47.6% (267)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Hischier has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Hischier is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,187).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hischier
Home
47.3% (387)
56.5% (867)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.6% (910)
By Period
McDavid
Hischier
P1
47.6%
57.9%
P2
50.0%
55.9%
P3
45.0%
52.7%
Final 5 min
46.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |