Scouting Report
Nico Hischier holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hischier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hischier 54.9% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hischier 58.7%
Defensive zone
Hischier 72.0%
Neutral zone
Hischier 64.3%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
McDavid
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
McDavid
Hischier
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
Hischier
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
3
4
McDavid
Hischier
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hischier
1
3
McDavid
Hischier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
55.0% (1,107)
-7.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
63.1% (252)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
43.6% (149)
+2.9%
On power play, Hischier has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Hischier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (977).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hischier
Home
50.2% (400)
56.5% (763)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.0% (745)
By Period
McDavid
Hischier
P1
47.5%
56.0%
P2
48.6%
57.6%
P3
46.7%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 05:23 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |