Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Roy 48.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 62.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 75.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
McDavid
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McDavid
Roy
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
49.5% (746)
+4.8%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
50.7% (75)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
42.7% (110)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
McDavid
Roy
Home
53.6% (507)
47.7% (491)
Away
53.8% (539)
50.0% (440)
By Period
McDavid
Roy
P1
52.6%
51.1%
P2
54.1%
44.6%
P3
54.9%
50.9%
OT
44.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 16:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |