Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Roy 48.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 69.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
McDavid
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
15
(36 meetings)
21
15
McDavid
Roy
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
3
McDavid
Roy
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
4
7
McDavid
Roy
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
5
McDavid
Roy
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.7% (3,719)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
49.5% (283)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
45.5% (477)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
McDavid
Roy
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
McDavid
Roy
P1
46.5%
50.8%
P2
48.7%
46.3%
P3
48.3%
48.1%
OT
40.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |