Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Roy 47.2% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 75.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
McDavid
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Roy
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
McDavid
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
McDavid
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
47.5% (617)
+4.1%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
39.6% (53)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
46.4% (97)
-10.0%
On power play, McDavid has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
McDavid
Roy
Home
51.8% (415)
47.2% (398)
Away
50.4% (450)
46.3% (369)
By Period
McDavid
Roy
P1
47.5%
48.6%
P2
51.6%
48.8%
P3
55.5%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |