Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Roy 48.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
McDavid
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
McDavid
Roy
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
McDavid
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
48.3% (633)
+3.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
52.1% (48)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
43.7% (87)
+7.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
McDavid
Roy
Home
50.7% (513)
50.8% (376)
Away
53.2% (498)
45.4% (392)
By Period
McDavid
Roy
P1
52.3%
53.8%
P2
51.6%
43.5%
P3
51.7%
46.4%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 03:28 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |