Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Greig 45.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 53.0%
Defensive zone
Greig 62.8%
Neutral zone
Greig 57.5%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
McDavid
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Greig
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
McDavid
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
3
McDavid
Greig
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
45.2% (414)
+6.4%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
28.6% (14)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
28.6% (21)
+7.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
McDavid
Greig
Home
51.8% (415)
46.4% (196)
Away
50.4% (450)
41.9% (253)
By Period
McDavid
Greig
P1
47.5%
40.8%
P2
51.6%
46.4%
P3
55.5%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |