Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Greig 48.8% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.4%
Defensive zone
Greig 67.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
McDavid
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McDavid
Greig
Last 8: McDavid 3-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
McDavid
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
3
McDavid
Greig
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Greig
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.5% (1,133)
-0.8%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
56.8% (74)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.5% (172)
-3.1%
On power play, Greig has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
McDavid
Greig
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.8% (681)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.7% (698)
By Period
McDavid
Greig
P1
46.5%
46.3%
P2
48.7%
51.2%
P3
48.3%
48.8%
OT
40.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |