Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Greig 50.6% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 80.7%
Neutral zone
Greig 51.2%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
McDavid
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.5% (336)
-4.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
66.7% (24)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
43.2% (81)
+3.3%
On power play, Greig has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
McDavid
Greig
Home
50.2% (400)
50.2% (247)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.5% (194)
By Period
McDavid
Greig
P1
47.5%
46.9%
P2
48.6%
58.8%
P3
46.7%
48.3%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |