Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Hartman 43.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 63.5%
Defensive zone
Hartman 67.1%
Neutral zone
Hartman 62.5%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Hartman
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
42.4% (618)
+3.9%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
45.9% (61)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
40.0% (15)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
49.8% (325)
41.9% (372)
Away
44.6% (316)
43.5% (322)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
46.2%
41.3%
P2
48.6%
40.8%
P3
47.1%
45.5%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Hartman
44.0%▲
41.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |