Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (55% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Hartman 45.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
16
(33 meetings)
17
16
McDavid
Hartman
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
McDavid
Hartman
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
McDavid
Hartman
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
5
McDavid
Hartman
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
45.2% (4,235)
+2.5%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
47.4% (443)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
42.4% (262)
+1.0%
On power play, McDavid has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
49.3% (4,570)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
46.5%
46.0%
P2
48.7%
42.9%
P3
48.3%
46.8%
OT
40.9%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.1%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |