Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Hartman 47.3% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Hartman
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
McDavid
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
47.1% (649)
+4.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
47.1% (68)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
45.2% (73)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
51.8% (415)
46.5% (361)
Away
50.4% (450)
47.3% (429)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
47.5%
45.1%
P2
51.6%
44.4%
P3
55.5%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |