Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hartman 45.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.4%
Defensive zone
Hartman 55.3%
Neutral zone
Hartman 53.5%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Hartman
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
44.8% (830)
+2.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
47.8% (92)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
37.5% (16)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
50.2% (400)
45.0% (515)
Away
44.7% (365)
44.9% (423)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
47.5%
46.5%
P2
48.6%
39.9%
P3
46.7%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |