Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (55% H2H, 11 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 64.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
McDavid
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
McDavid
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
55.4% (826)
-7.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
57.9% (221)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.4% (129)
-3.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
50.2% (400)
55.8% (579)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.9% (597)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
47.5%
57.7%
P2
48.6%
54.8%
P3
46.7%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |