Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
McDavid
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
56.2% (983)
-8.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
55.5% (254)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
52.0% (102)
-29.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
47.3% (387)
56.2% (697)
Away
48.1% (389)
55.1% (642)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
54.5%
P2
50.0%
55.5%
P3
45.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |