Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 19-8 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
19
(27 meetings)
8
19
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
7
McDavid
O'Reilly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.3%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
60.4% (260)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
54.0% (261)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
53.6% (507)
54.9% (801)
Away
53.8% (539)
58.7% (784)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
58.0%
P2
54.1%
56.7%
P3
54.9%
55.4%
OT
44.4%
64.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 13:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 00:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 08:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |