Connor McDavid vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 63 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 96-55 in 151 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 87.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 96.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 95.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 93.4%
93.4%
6.6%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
96
(151 meetings)
55
96
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
16
28
McDavid
O'Reilly
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
29
McDavid
O'Reilly
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
24
39
McDavid
O'Reilly
63 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.5%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
51.4% (2,811)
-8.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
49.3% (4,570)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
55.6%
P2
48.7%
57.0%
P3
48.3%
55.1%
OT
40.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
50.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |