Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 16-3 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 71.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
16
(19 meetings)
3
16
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
McDavid
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
McDavid
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
56.1% (690)
-4.6%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
64.6% (96)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
45.9% (109)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
50.7% (513)
58.3% (408)
Away
53.2% (498)
53.6% (487)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
57.7%
P2
51.6%
54.8%
P3
51.7%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:04 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |