Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 15-6 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
15
(21 meetings)
6
15
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
56.8% (303)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
40.3% (149)
-3.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
51.8% (415)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.4% (450)
53.0% (777)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
47.5%
55.3%
P2
51.6%
51.9%
P3
55.5%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 01:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 05:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |