Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
McDavid
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
McDavid
Reinhart
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Reinhart
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
3
McDavid
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
42.5% (2,173)
+5.2%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
46.5% (525)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
41.3% (339)
+2.1%
On power play, McDavid has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
McDavid
Reinhart
Home
49.3% (4,570)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
McDavid
Reinhart
P1
46.5%
44.5%
P2
48.7%
40.5%
P3
48.3%
44.5%
OT
40.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |