Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Steel 49.4% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 71.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
McDavid
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Steel
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
49.3% (383)
+5.0%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
59.1% (22)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
14.3% (7)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Steel is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
McDavid
Steel
Home
53.6% (507)
49.4% (180)
Away
53.8% (539)
49.1% (232)
By Period
McDavid
Steel
P1
52.6%
51.9%
P2
54.1%
43.8%
P3
54.9%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 18:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:21 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |