Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Steel 52.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
McDavid
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
McDavid
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
McDavid
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
56.9% (320)
-9.2%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
71.4% (7)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
37.0% (73)
-14.8%
On power play, Steel has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
McDavid
Steel
Home
47.3% (387)
55.9% (202)
Away
48.1% (389)
51.0% (198)
By Period
McDavid
Steel
P1
47.6%
55.5%
P2
50.0%
55.1%
P3
45.0%
50.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:40 | Defensive | Sam Steel |