Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Steel 50.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 50.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 60.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 67.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
McDavid
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
McDavid
Steel
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
1
McDavid
Steel
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
4
McDavid
Steel
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
4
7
McDavid
Steel
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
50.6% (2,876)
-2.9%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
62.6% (179)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
37.4% (254)
+6.0%
On power play, Steel has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
McDavid
Steel
Home
49.3% (4,570)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
McDavid
Steel
P1
46.5%
51.9%
P2
48.7%
49.5%
P3
48.3%
49.6%
OT
40.9%
41.9%
Final 5 min
50.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:40 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:44 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:45 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 18:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |