Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kuraly 50.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 51.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.8% (444)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
45.3% (150)
+1.2%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
50.2% (400)
54.6% (304)
Away
44.7% (365)
45.5% (290)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
47.5%
55.2%
P2
48.6%
45.7%
P3
46.7%
49.5%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |