Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Kuraly 49.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 51.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
50.8% (370)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
44.1% (127)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (454).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
49.8% (325)
52.8% (269)
Away
44.6% (316)
44.7% (228)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
46.2%
53.2%
P2
48.6%
45.8%
P3
47.1%
47.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |