Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 79.2%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
McDavid
Kuraly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
5
McDavid
Kuraly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
McDavid
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
52.3% (982)
+2.0%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
41.9% (43)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
39.2% (245)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
53.6% (507)
50.3% (680)
Away
53.8% (539)
48.5% (590)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
52.6%
49.5%
P2
54.1%
49.6%
P3
54.9%
49.0%
OT
44.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 09:14 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |