Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 73.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDavid
Kuraly
Last 7: McDavid 3-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
McDavid
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.2% (901)
+2.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
68.2% (22)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
49.8% (219)
+1.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
50.7% (513)
51.7% (603)
Away
53.2% (498)
47.3% (539)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
52.3%
50.9%
P2
51.6%
49.5%
P3
51.7%
49.1%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |