Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 23-14 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 90.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 57.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
23
(37 meetings)
14
23
McDavid
Kuraly
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
4
13
McDavid
Kuraly
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
9
10
McDavid
Kuraly
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.5% (5,141)
-3.8%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
56.0% (100)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
44.2% (1,086)
-0.8%
On power play, Kuraly has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
49.3% (4,570)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
46.5%
51.1%
P2
48.7%
49.9%
P3
48.3%
50.0%
OT
40.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 09:14 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |