Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Kuraly 46.9% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 50.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Kuraly
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
McDavid
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
McDavid
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
46.0% (661)
-4.6%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
77.8% (9)
-30.0%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
47.1% (51)
-11.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (524).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
42.8% (451)
47.2% (335)
Away
40.0% (458)
45.9% (386)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
38.0%
47.1%
P2
44.9%
44.6%
P3
41.7%
48.1%
Final 5 min
47.9%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:42 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |