Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Crosby 55.5% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 86.9%
Defensive zone
Crosby 69.1%
Neutral zone
Crosby 77.5%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
McDavid
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Crosby
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
McDavid
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.7% (984)
-6.2%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
64.7% (241)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
64.3% (14)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (879).
Home / Away
McDavid
Crosby
Home
50.2% (400)
56.9% (649)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.9% (590)
By Period
McDavid
Crosby
P1
47.5%
55.8%
P2
48.6%
53.2%
P3
46.7%
58.7%
OT
33.3%
54.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |