Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Hertl 51.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 71.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 90.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 78.8%
21.2%
78.8%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McDavid
Hertl
Last 6: McDavid 5-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
50.4% (367)
-7.1%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
64.6% (48)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
49.2% (59)
-7.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
48.7% (413)
50.9% (220)
Away
37.4% (393)
52.4% (254)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
38.8%
52.7%
P2
46.8%
52.8%
P3
44.2%
49.7%
OT
45.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 11:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 06:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |