Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 78.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McDavid
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
58.1% (823)
-10.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
56.2% (265)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
62.9% (35)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
50.2% (400)
59.7% (561)
Away
44.7% (365)
55.9% (562)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
47.5%
51.6%
P2
48.6%
63.8%
P3
46.7%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |