Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 52-44 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 65.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
52
(96 meetings)
44
52
McDavid
Hertl
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
19
17
McDavid
Hertl
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
20
McDavid
Hertl
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
16
15
McDavid
Hertl
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.8% (8,268)
-6.1%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.3% (806)
-2.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
49.3% (4,570)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
46.5%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
54.1%
P3
48.3%
55.3%
OT
40.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |