Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McDavid
Hertl
Last 8: McDavid 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McDavid
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
McDavid
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
54.1% (1,117)
-2.6%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
59.8% (296)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
34.4% (32)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
50.7% (513)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.2% (498)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
52.3%
51.6%
P2
51.6%
53.6%
P3
51.7%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 05:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |