Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
McDavid
Hertl
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
McDavid
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McDavid
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
51.6% (1,084)
+2.7%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
61.0% (246)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
44.1% (136)
-10.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
53.6% (507)
55.2% (696)
Away
53.8% (539)
50.0% (770)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
52.6%
55.4%
P2
54.1%
54.8%
P3
54.9%
48.9%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 16:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 08:02 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |