Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McDavid
Hertl
Last 8: McDavid 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
57.0% (718)
-5.4%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
64.9% (188)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.2% (77)
-7.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
51.8% (415)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.4% (450)
56.0% (520)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
47.5%
56.3%
P2
51.6%
55.4%
P3
55.5%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |