Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Gourde 52.5% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Gourde
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
McDavid
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
McDavid
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
54.7% (243)
-7.8%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
50.0% (24)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
37.5% (16)
+6.9%
On power play, Gourde has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
47.9% (478)
54.1% (133)
Away
45.2% (440)
52.7% (150)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
47.7%
52.6%
P3
46.6%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 18:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 06:11 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 15:18 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |