Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Gourde 49.7% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 52.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.4%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
McDavid
Gourde
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
McDavid
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
4
McDavid
Gourde
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.1% (847)
+2.4%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
79.5% (44)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
39.5% (81)
+11.7%
On power play, Gourde has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
50.7% (513)
50.1% (491)
Away
53.2% (498)
49.3% (481)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
52.3%
54.7%
P2
51.6%
45.0%
P3
51.7%
49.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 01:50 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |