Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Gourde 48.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
McDavid
Gourde
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
3
McDavid
Gourde
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
48.0% (914)
+3.6%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
54.2% (48)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
43.9% (123)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
51.8% (415)
50.2% (512)
Away
50.4% (450)
45.7% (573)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
47.5%
50.0%
P2
51.6%
45.3%
P3
55.5%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |