Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Gourde 49.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
McDavid
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
49.1% (731)
+5.2%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
54.3% (81)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
48.2% (85)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
53.6% (507)
50.9% (479)
Away
53.8% (539)
47.8% (418)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
52.6%
51.2%
P2
54.1%
49.8%
P3
54.9%
47.5%
OT
44.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |